Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Ivan Will be Potent as well, Helen Begins the 1-2-3 punch tonight


-11:00 PM EDT Snow is absolutely intense right now, I would say we got 2-3 cm on the ground thus far, going outside right now to check it out. I will have a new post up at midnight.

-10:00 PM EDT Moderate Snow falling and the grass is already starting to get covered.

- 8:40 PM EDT Hamilton starts to snow and most of Southwestern Ontario is getting steady moderate snowfall. Snow should start in the GTA in another hour.

Looks like Ivan wont be too shabby either, and even has the slight possibility to exceed George. The consitency of the models on all these three storms had so far been amazing( well, except one, which I will discuss after) and now most models brings another potent winter storm our way in the form of even colder snow.

Ivan will take the form of a phased solution of an Alberta Clipper and a strong gulf low pressure off Texas, the stalling action once it phases in the Apps could spell significant snow to many regions. We are as close to certain to a white Christmas as we can get to. I will not put any details on the exact accumulations until at least Thursday, partly due to the fact we are far away, but mainly because we are gonna be dealing with the next few days.

Helen is already bringing light snow right now to the extreme southern Ontario. We will be getting our snow starting in 2 1/2 hours. Snow could be quite heavy overnight and you should wake up to see quite a bit of snow on the ground. I am still holding on from this early morning's prediction. Observations of Helen will be done on this thread(updated on the top) until 11 pm, which I will have a new thread up on the latest information.

George is a phenomena of its own. The models is fairly consistent with the track if not slightly southward. The last NAM did a 180 degree flop and pushed it 150 km South, which now definitely is an outlier( in fact, the lastest GFS is even slightly further North). I am still holding on to my earlier forecast but I could see the heaviest band further south on the final forecast.

I will be quite busy today, switching from looking at the radar, the model, outside and the forum. Thats what happens when a number of snow storm is here. Before I end this post, I would want to add that my gut says that mother nature may be saving the best for the last.

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