George will be a Southwestern Special

Monday Dec 15 2008 6:00 pm EST-
A potentially biggest winter storm of the season will move just south of Southern Ontario. A Colorado low
associated with alot of moiture is set to move into Southern Ontario by Thursday. The low will
move directly east after reaching illinois across into South of the Great Lakes.The last few days saw the storm move further South, dimishing
the ice storm threat and even lessered the amount. Ares in Southeastern Ontario may score a miss as the low passes below them. Freezing rain is stil
possible alone the shores of lake Erie but this will remain a snow event. Snow begans Overnight Thursday and will proceed into the evening hours,
strong wind is likely to be associated and driving conditions will be terrible for both rush hours Friday. A general 20-30 cm is expected South of
the London to Hamilton line and the amount will lessen the further north you go. Lake enhancement could increase the amount of snow at the west end of lake Ontario

Forecast for selected cities:
Toronto 15-25 cm
Hamilton 20-30 cm
London 20-25 cm
Windsor - 20-25 cm ice pelletes mixing in
Barrie - 10-15 cm
Niagara Region - 20-30 cm Freezing rain likely
Kingston - 10-20 cm
Ottawa - 3-5 cm
Sudbury - 0 cm

The models just kept moving South throughout today and at one point, NAM is even putting Toronto out of it. With the oz run out, I think I have the idea for this storm.

Originally, the models were mishandling the arctic air sitting in Manitoba and Northern Ontario. Now that the models got better grip, they trended it further South. I still think they are overexaggerating the south track a little bit the last two runs. The 00z NAM turned back to its 12z solution and I expected a slight sway North as the final track. This will put the heaviest snow around St.Thomas and Niagara region.

Hamilton into Pickering could get some lake enhancement with ESE wind. Which could bump up the amount a bit. I think the total will not exceed 30 cm. Things may not look as good as 2 days ago, but this will still be quite a storm.

Winter Storm watches issued for Southwestern Ontario. This could turn into warning by tommorow morning. Unless the models continue a south track, which I don't think is likely, this is what I think we will be getting.

Attention will be turned to the next winter storm and the one after that around Christmas(yes, another one is coming) by tommorow night, but the next two runs are still key to the track of this storm. Observations will start tommorow night.