Daniel a bust, cold air to funnel in

this one is a head scratcher, not only does the unexpected mix to rain happen in half of the southern Ontario, the accumulation also is much lower expected in most areas. I've been examining the reasons for the failure in forecast both by me, others, and even enviroment Canada.

looks like Southern Ontario was stuck between two branches of main precips. The gulf moiture and the Clipper should have merged very nicely together, however, that did not happen. Instead, there are many holes in the precip that moved into Southern Ontario. Temperatuer also is warmer than models and the forecast had showed. Even the areas that is supposed to receive all snow, received, ice, mix and very heavy and wet snow.

I think these are the two reasons for the failure of this system.

In other news, EC released a winter forecast(yep its that late) saying we will have less snowfall in usual, I find that total BS, despite the early disappointment of the two systems, we still got 10 cm of snow in November. There is still an apparent active weather pattern going on and Dec is set to be colder than usual. Last time I checked, the accuracy of EC's long range forecast is around 40%, that is just slightly better than chance!

A weak system is going to move in Wednesday night into Thursday, gonna be another rain-snow mixed or something like that, what is interesting about this is the fact it will funnel in a extended surge of very cold air that looks to stay for at least 5 to 10 days. Temperatures during this cold spell could reach close to -20 at dawn. Obviously, areas North, of Toronto will get to that -20 value from this. Because of the sudden surge of cold front, we may end up with more snow on the ground from this small system than the two previous ones(which is close to nothing).

Models show another winter storm forming in the period between 7-10 days. Obviously, I am not putting much into something like this this far out, but it could be interesting consider the cold air which will put us into the colder sector if this occurs.

Ensembles seemed confident that we will be in a December month-long cold spell, interupted just occasionally by storms.

I take back what I said about the interesting pattern these few weeks, weather is ALWAYS interesting, especially in winter.