Looks like my forecast issued yesterday should be bang on. Models indeed trended north and now it is slowly getting back to what it said 2 days ago. I would now confidently say that the amount should be more likely the higher end of total forecasted.
The latest NAM and GFS both trended further north, having an average of 20-30 cm of snow for Toronto. The storm will move across in a hurry but this will probably bring the heaviest bands of snow ever seen in TO in a long time. The temperature will be very cold and the wind will be very strong, blizzard conditions could be expected for a few hours in many places. Here is an exact timeline of events for Toronto, the time should be 1 hour earlier every 75 km west you go.:
6-8 - Flurries at times heavy from Toronto to Oakvile. Snow moves in to Hamilton.
8-10 - light snow turning into heavy snow in Toronto. amount at 10 AM - 2 cm
10 -Noon - moderate to heavy snow steadily falling, amount at Noon - 7 cm
Noon-3 PM - I think this is when the heavest snow will fall, blizzard conditions will be expected, amount at 3 PM - 15 cm
3 PM - 6 PM - Heavy snow slowly tapers off to moderate-light snow, amount at 6 PM - 20 cm
6PM - 10 PM - snow tapers off, final accumulation 22cm
The ingredients for this storm is the closest I've seen from a blizzard and condtions will be more than terrible outside. I advise those of you who are driving to work or school to not go because you might have a very tough drive and it will be dangerous. Even walking to school could be tricky(especially the way back).
The next thing I am going to look at is Ivan, this one will definitely not be as severe but could bring quite a dumping as well. While winter storm warning is issued for George, Ivan might get some snowfall warnings especially in eastern Ontario. I think everybody in Southern Ontario will get equal share once both storm passes.
I will be constantly updating on the track, observations and radar of this upcoming storm. This is the first time this winter I am going into Major winter storm mode.
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