Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Heavy snow falling, 5 x more to come

The heaviest snowfall I've seen so far this winter is falling right before my eyes right now as Winter Storm Helen rolls in, totals are already approaching 5 cm and we are only at 1/3 of this storm. Due to the higher snow/liquid ratio, we could quite possibly pick up 15 cm when this is done, and to think this is only the beginning.

Winter Storm George will move into Southern Ontario quickly around midnight Friday and will continue to snow all day Friday. I think there is actually a high chance of school closing on this last day of school before the holidays.

My final forecast which will be release sometime tomorrow will see the track about 100-150 further South, Area around Hamilton and Niagara could be the sweet spot of this storm and I can see them picking up the highest amounts(30-40 cm). Models has been fairly good with this system and should be a easy one to predict. Like mentioned previously, this storm will quite possibly stay in peoples memories for years.

Looks like ice threat is diminished, folks alone Erie and around the Niagara Pennisola will probably see some freezing rain but the threat will not be too big. This storm should stay mainly snow.

Taking a look at Ivan tells me this one will be a tough one to track and forecast. The models have this system "stalling" around the great lakes, with strong winds and cold temperatures, we could be looking at a blizzard. However, the confidence in models for this storm is not very high and things could change, I think this will be a big snow storm, but the exact nature of it is still yet to be determined.

Looking at the long range tells me Ivan will not be the last of the storm train. GFS brings a storm after storm tracking up the east. We may as well surpass the winter average snowfall at the end of this month!

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