After much thought and consideration, I think that a winter storm will definitely take place between the time period indicated. Though many have different ideas, all models point towards a storm centering the low somewhere around the Northeast and the Coast. The GFS also indicated a secondary low forming as week.
There is still alot of unknowns left for this storm but I think this one will be easier to forecast than the last storm once we get into the 3 day range. As of right now, I think the heavest swath of snow will stay around the Canada/US border with the low tracking east of the apps. I will give the models a day or two to make up their mind on the exact track.
I've been emphasizing that it will be either mainly snow or no storm at all for southern Ontario, and I have a strong case for that. With the cold arctic air set to arrive at this point, a neutral Enso and with the NAO set to plunge, it should be a good set up for a coastal storm. One key thing for this is missing is the high pressure system that should set up across Northern Ontario. This let me to believe that this low have a high likelyhood of tracking east of the apps, generally, storm like that gives us 10-15 cm of snow with the heaviest staying a little south of the border across Northern Ohio and Upstate New York.
However, with still 4 days left and lots of things to be settled, this storm will only remain a possibility for now. Lets see how this thing will eventually work out.
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