6:00 pm Friday Nov 21 2008 Current models show an Alberta Clipper associated with a low pressure system is set to move right into the great lakes region by Monday Morning, this will tap the gulf moisture from south, resulting in a very interesting setup for the next 2 days. The initial low will move across from lake superior into the heart of southern Ontario, the draw of gulf moisture as a result will produce wet snow, cold showers and icy mix. Most parts of southern Ontario will receive mostly snow and wet snow. Things get interesting as the energy from this low transfers to the Mid-Atlantic Coast at Monday evening. A even stronger system with added moisture turns Northwest into PA and NY. Some model forecast the low pressure system to stall over that area, which could produce significant amounts of wrap up snow for Southeastern Ontario and Southern Quebec. This is very early into the game and lots of things can change, the only confidence right now is the track of the initial low, stay tuned for forecast discussions and final forecast over the course of the next 3 days.
Primary Forecast Amount:
Windsor - 5-15cm
London - 10-20cm
Toronto - 15-25cm
Barrie - 20-25cm
Niagara Region - 10-20cm
Kingston - 20-35cm
Ottawa - 30-40cm
Sudbury - 15-20cm
I was looking at the GFS model earlier today in my computer science class(yes, I know I shouldn't be doing that!), I am mildly pleased when I see that the storm track of this low is consistent, as I turn to look at the Monday night to Tuesday model, something caught my eye. The expected tranfer into the coastal low took place, but.... WHAM! the model brings the low inland and make it stall there! The QPF was amazing, pointing to 15-25cm of additional snow for Toronto and even more for East of me, I was totally astonished by this solution and don't really know what to expect.
When I got home, I started to look into more details. I am growing confident as the 18 hz GFS brings the same solution. Winter Storm Christine will take place and it looks like it will be much more than what I originally would expect.
However, I am not completely sold into this just yet. One simple reason is the time. We are still 4 days away from this, with the consistency of the original low, it looks like a Winter Storm will take place, but as for the low stalling, it is still a wait and see game. So far though, we know three thing will take place:
1. The Clipper coming down, draws moiture from the gulf, forms winterstorm Christine.
2. Moves into southern Ontario, brings mixing and 5-15 cm of accumulations
3. The original low will teleport from southern Ontario into the Mid-Atlantic
After that the guessing game starts, will it track inland and stay there as the gfs model say?
I personally will not jump the gun yet, this could very will turn into a bust simply due to the constant changes of the models especially when the low pressure isn't on the map yet. My gut tells me it will be a disappointment, put who listens to guts anyways? :P
I along with many others will pay close attention to the development, I will shortly examine what most other models say about this system. I will start the forecast discussion post tommorow morning and I would love to hear your inputs and thoughts. Hang on tight though, because the rollercoaster ride starts now!
As for the answer to the original question, a simple cliche: Only time will tell!
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