Winter Storm Daniel Primary Forecast

3:00 PM EDT Friday Nov 28 2008-

An Alberta Clipper is set to move down South into the US plains assoicated with a low pressure system is set to move Northeast into west of Apps
Another gulf set of moiture assoicated with another low is to set to move north along the Atlantic coast. This is a very good set up for a winter storm
that would arrive late Sunday in southern Ontario.
Dispite recent models suggesting a warmer and weaker system, due to the forecasted conditions during this time period, the recent models are considered
as outliers. There is a strong confidence a winterstorm of some shape will take place and will bring significant amount of snow to parts of the Southern Ontario.
Current anylises suggest that this winter storm will produce 15-25cm of snow to most parts of Southern Ontario and 5-10 cm of snow to Southern edges closer to
the lakes due to rain mixing in and the wetness nature.
There are still a few unknowns and the recent NAM model raised that question further, situations will be monitored closely and the final storm forecast
will be issued Sunday Afternoon

Windsor - 10-15 cm,
London - 15-20cm
Toronto - 15-25cm
Barrie - 20-25cm
Niagara Region - 5-15cm
Kingston - 5-15cm
Ottawa - 20-30cm
Sudbury - 5-10cm


Oh what? this is the forth winter storm already???? sure it doesn't seem like it here in Southern Ontario, but many folks out there already got their taste of winter. Now, it looks like we will be getting our's.

I was very happy that the models where fairly consistent yesterday but I was in half-shock how the models starts arguing again today. Like I've mentioned previously, I would not pay too much attention to what the models are doing until tomorrow afternoon.

Despite the fact that the models kind of did a flip, they still all shows a snow storm for Southern Ontario, which again varies the legitimacy of this system. Temperature will once again hover around the freezing mark which is always tricky.

It was very surprising how everybody, even the very conservative agencies, jumped onto this storm early. EC issued a special weather statement yesterday, no you didn't read it wrong, 3 days out, Michael Kuss of CP24 even mentioned this storm 5 days out. When professional meteorologist starts to jump onto a storm this early, you got to pay attention to it.

I fully expect the models to have a fair agreement of decent accumlating snow(10+) for most of Southern Ontario tomorrow, we shall see. but for now, I am pretty confident with the forecast I have now.

PS: I see a very strong surge of cold air around Dec 10th, details on that after this storm