Winter Storm Christine Final Forecast

8:00 PM EDT Sunday Nov 23 2008
A low pressure system combined with gulf moiture is set to turn into an interesting winter storm
and move into Southern Ontario on Monday Afternoon. The track of the low is 50-75 KM south of the
orignal forecast position as of 7:00 PM EDT while the models have a consistent track for the next
24-48 hours. The first wave of the storm will enter windsor late in the morning and arrive in
Toronto be the afternoon, precipation should first begin as rain snow mix and will gradualy change to
snow late evening and overnight. I am confident that the precip will stay mostly snow in most areas
in southern Ontario other than the far southern regions. a general swath of 5-10 cm is forecasted
for southern Ontario and 10-15 cm for central Ontario.
There will be a break early Tuesday morning and precip will pick up again in the afternoon
The second wave will be alot more trickier. The low pressure system will transfer the energy
into the coast, and will slowly go inland again, the low could stall there for up to 36 hours
around the NY, PA and ON border. Recent US models brought moderate to heavy wrap
up band to Southeastern Ontario extending all the way into the golden horseshoe, lake enhancement
will also set up across Huron, Georgian Bay and Erie. After examining many references, the conclusion
is a general 5-15 cm of snow from Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday Eve for most regions in
Southern Ontario. Flurries could last up to Thursday.
The snow that will come from this system will generally be wet and heavy, lots of snow could
melt on contact, slushy and slippery condition is expected all through Southern Ontario.

Forecast for selected locations

Windsor - 5 cm, start off as rain, snow will get mixed in later on. Minimal amounts for Tuesday and Wednesday
London - 15-20cm, start off as mix, turns into wet snow late evening. Break early Tuesday, snow starts again by afternoon
Toronto - 15-20cm start off as mix, turns into wet snow late evening. Break early Tuesday, snow starts again by afternoon
Barrie - 20-25cm Snow into Tuesday Morning, snow starts again Tuesday Afternoon
Niagara Region - 10-20cm rain-snow mix into wet snow overnight, snow starts again Tuesday Afternoon
Kingston - 5-10cm Rain-snow mix starts late afternoon ends late morning, rain or snow starts again Tuesday afternoon
Ottawa - 20-30cm Snow starts in the evening, turns into rain-snow mix Tues After, switches back to snow late evening
Sudbury - 15-25cm Snow from Monday eve into Wednesday


It took quite a bit of overactive brain cells to go through the last few days, the models been doing double takes on the storm. One of the best consistency I've seen on the first wave, and quite alot of bickering on the second. I am able to come up with a conclusion nevertheless, and I am pretty confident that this will be the track.

Rain snow mix should start in Toronto by the afternoon hours and the rush hour traffic is going to be a mess with the slush. This part is almost guaranteeing 5-10 cm to most parts of Southern Ontario and it will all be very messy( not the nice and fluffy kind, ah that sucks).

When the coastal low gathers and moves inland, this must be causing many meteorologists headaches(hello Brett? probably why he still didn't come up with a forecast). The bulk of energy will be suffered by Southern Quebec and Southeastern Ontario, the places near the lakes and East of Montreal probably gonna suffer alot of rain. A little North you will probably find Ottawa enjoying quite a snowstorm out of this.

The wrap up band should(emphasizing on the should) pack something to Toronto, not only will this bring a general good amount of snow, this should also set up the already active lakes( a meter of snow for Exeter anyone?).

Anyways, enough with the talking and lets enjoy the first major snowstorm of the season!( or will we?)

Observation post will be open tomorrow afternoon and extending all the way to Wednesday, I will be actively updating on the latest information and hope all of you could provide something in the comments section.