5:35 PM EDT - the 18HZ GFS backs it up, this will be the last update before my final forecast in 4 hours. I will be looking at many more data before I get the final o
4:00 PM EDT- the 18HZ NAM is starting to lean towards the 12HZ GFS, giving a decent backdoor snowfall amount for the first time on this storm. ZOMG , could this be happening?
2:10 PM EDT -
.....ah I wish! It will take more than a model run to make a dream into reality.2:00 PM EDT - the recent GFS brough heavy backside precip yet again, this just made the forecast that much difficult, unless I got the confirmation from other models on the next two runs, I'm considering that an outlier. My final forecast is out in the evening.
Saturday
1:00 PM EDT - I am getting a better idea of what is gona happen, models are starting to come together and tonights 00hz runs are very important. It looks like the first wave should bring 5-10 cm of wet snow mixed with ice and the second wave should bring another 10 cm to Toronto, the amount will be less west of Toronto and more east of it.
9:00 AM EDT - Not much changes right now in terms of my thought. The models have been pretty consistent themselves but not with each other. The NAM still don't show the second wrap up and the GFS continues to bring it up, I am and will slide with the NAM for now.
2 comments:
so if this storm did hit then omg! it looks as if we will get clipped from this i think but if things on the models keep changing then it is very hard to say who gets hit do you think that it will be a nasty storm or just your regular type storm for the GTA
this aint gonna be very nasty, but it is gonna be nasty ;)
final forecast out, enjoy
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