Daniel Goes Northwest, snowstorms turns icy

Latest indications show the storm with more northwest track, temperature will hover around the freezing mark in all of Southern Ontario. Mainly Snow is expected north of London, GTA and Kingston.

Final Forecast
Windsor - 5 cm
London - 10 cm
Toronto - 5 cm downtown, 10 cm suburbs, 15-20 cm North of highway 7
Barrie - 20-25cm
Niagara Region - 2- 5cm
Kingston - 2-5 cm
Ottawa - 15-25cm
Sudbury - 15-25cm

Due to time restraint, there wont be further discussions about the forecast and observations will set up in 30 minutes. Many places in Southern Ontario already started to report snow. Stay tuned.

Winter Storm Daniel Forecast discussions

10:00 AM - models had made a shift, for the worse and the radar aren't looking very promising either, it looks like it will be warmer than expected....

10:00 PM - Did not update for a long time, but I have lots to say right now. Models are showing a stronger storm each solution. Temps will be at or below 0 north from London to Newmarket to South of Ottawa and temps will be slightly above 0 anywhere. This makes the forecast very tricky, especially that the freezing line on the GFS sits right above lake Ontario. I still don't believe there should be too much rain anywhere North of 401. Should be either wet snow or snow. If it stays all snow, we are looking at 15-30 cm here in lots of places in Southern Ontario. Things will not be very pretty though, temps will be constantly above the freezing mark for the next several days. There will be many shots of cold air afterwards but they do not seem consistent on the models, which could mean a continuious stormy pattern.
Final forecast out tommorow. I think I should get a much better idea of what exactly is gonna fall where soon. I have stated earlier that this storm will be mostly snow or nothing, still sticking to that statement.

10:00 AM - gonna be a short forecast discussion this time, final forecast out early tomorrow afternoon. As of now, the GFS and NAM is starting to look better. If the temp goes 1-2 degrees Celsius, this will be looking very good, still sticking right along with my original forecast.

Winter Storm Daniel Primary Forecast

3:00 PM EDT Friday Nov 28 2008-

An Alberta Clipper is set to move down South into the US plains assoicated with a low pressure system is set to move Northeast into west of Apps
Another gulf set of moiture assoicated with another low is to set to move north along the Atlantic coast. This is a very good set up for a winter storm
that would arrive late Sunday in southern Ontario.
Dispite recent models suggesting a warmer and weaker system, due to the forecasted conditions during this time period, the recent models are considered
as outliers. There is a strong confidence a winterstorm of some shape will take place and will bring significant amount of snow to parts of the Southern Ontario.
Current anylises suggest that this winter storm will produce 15-25cm of snow to most parts of Southern Ontario and 5-10 cm of snow to Southern edges closer to
the lakes due to rain mixing in and the wetness nature.
There are still a few unknowns and the recent NAM model raised that question further, situations will be monitored closely and the final storm forecast
will be issued Sunday Afternoon

Windsor - 10-15 cm,
London - 15-20cm
Toronto - 15-25cm
Barrie - 20-25cm
Niagara Region - 5-15cm
Kingston - 5-15cm
Ottawa - 20-30cm
Sudbury - 5-10cm


Oh what? this is the forth winter storm already???? sure it doesn't seem like it here in Southern Ontario, but many folks out there already got their taste of winter. Now, it looks like we will be getting our's.

I was very happy that the models where fairly consistent yesterday but I was in half-shock how the models starts arguing again today. Like I've mentioned previously, I would not pay too much attention to what the models are doing until tomorrow afternoon.

Despite the fact that the models kind of did a flip, they still all shows a snow storm for Southern Ontario, which again varies the legitimacy of this system. Temperature will once again hover around the freezing mark which is always tricky.

It was very surprising how everybody, even the very conservative agencies, jumped onto this storm early. EC issued a special weather statement yesterday, no you didn't read it wrong, 3 days out, Michael Kuss of CP24 even mentioned this storm 5 days out. When professional meteorologist starts to jump onto a storm this early, you got to pay attention to it.

I fully expect the models to have a fair agreement of decent accumlating snow(10+) for most of Southern Ontario tomorrow, we shall see. but for now, I am pretty confident with the forecast I have now.

PS: I see a very strong surge of cold air around Dec 10th, details on that after this storm

Winter Storm Possibility Nov 30-Dec 1

After much thought and consideration, I think that a winter storm will definitely take place between the time period indicated. Though many have different ideas, all models point towards a storm centering the low somewhere around the Northeast and the Coast. The GFS also indicated a secondary low forming as week.

There is still alot of unknowns left for this storm but I think this one will be easier to forecast than the last storm once we get into the 3 day range. As of right now, I think the heavest swath of snow will stay around the Canada/US border with the low tracking east of the apps. I will give the models a day or two to make up their mind on the exact track.

I've been emphasizing that it will be either mainly snow or no storm at all for southern Ontario, and I have a strong case for that. With the cold arctic air set to arrive at this point, a neutral Enso and with the NAO set to plunge, it should be a good set up for a coastal storm. One key thing for this is missing is the high pressure system that should set up across Northern Ontario. This let me to believe that this low have a high likelyhood of tracking east of the apps, generally, storm like that gives us 10-15 cm of snow with the heaviest staying a little south of the border across Northern Ohio and Upstate New York.

However, with still 4 days left and lots of things to be settled, this storm will only remain a possibility for now. Lets see how this thing will eventually work out.

Winter Storm Christine leaves frustration behind, cold/ stormy pattern continues

When this storm had appeared on radar, I know that it is gonna be a tough one to deal with, the models are leaning one way or another and I have to take a central stand, turns out that is what happened.

Since Monday Afternoon, about 10 cm of slushy wet snow had fallen in Toronto, you wouldn't be noticing that if you look outside. All but melted either on contact or soon after. Folks just north of the GTA got a decent storm out of it. Aurora got 10-15 cm and Barrie got 15-20 cm, most had been sticking to the ground.

In terms of the overall accuracy of my final forecast, it is actually pretty good. The only part I probably messed up is around the golden horseshoe.

I am still waiting for the final amount and should have a report on that by tomorrow in this thread.

I really don't like looking into the past, especially when its not very good, so lets have a quick looks at what the next little while looks like.

like I've mentioned previously, we are currently in a very interesting pattern.

lake effect should continue off Huron, Georgian and Erie and amounts could be disastrous yet again. This Nov and Dec could very well get most of the snowbelts above the annual snowfall average.

The past 3 days had a storm moving up in the northeast on almost all major models. The Euro brings the storm right to us. GFS and GEM had it into the coast, guess what, it looks like the Euro had persuaded the GFS and GEM to join its idea and on the 12z run this morning, all have a major winter storm going up.

the be quite frank, the 12z GFS is making me drool, 50 cm of snow with blizzard conditions for the GTA. I seriously doubt that this will ever be the case, but it just shows that there will likely be a storm at this time range, especially when all models agree somewhat this far out.

I would love to get out the storm possibility post out right now, but it just don't seem realistic to jump on the gun on something that just caught people's attention, I will be monitoring this one very closely as always.

Winter is here to stay!

Winter Storm Christine

5:00 PM EDT - Steady Wet snow had been falling since 2:30, but unfortunately, due to the warm temp and the wetness of the snow, nothing is sticking. Still interested in why in the world isn't forecasts picking up the backside snow.

Winter Storm Christine Final Forecast

8:00 PM EDT Sunday Nov 23 2008
A low pressure system combined with gulf moiture is set to turn into an interesting winter storm
and move into Southern Ontario on Monday Afternoon. The track of the low is 50-75 KM south of the
orignal forecast position as of 7:00 PM EDT while the models have a consistent track for the next
24-48 hours. The first wave of the storm will enter windsor late in the morning and arrive in
Toronto be the afternoon, precipation should first begin as rain snow mix and will gradualy change to
snow late evening and overnight. I am confident that the precip will stay mostly snow in most areas
in southern Ontario other than the far southern regions. a general swath of 5-10 cm is forecasted
for southern Ontario and 10-15 cm for central Ontario.
There will be a break early Tuesday morning and precip will pick up again in the afternoon
The second wave will be alot more trickier. The low pressure system will transfer the energy
into the coast, and will slowly go inland again, the low could stall there for up to 36 hours
around the NY, PA and ON border. Recent US models brought moderate to heavy wrap
up band to Southeastern Ontario extending all the way into the golden horseshoe, lake enhancement
will also set up across Huron, Georgian Bay and Erie. After examining many references, the conclusion
is a general 5-15 cm of snow from Tuesday Afternoon to Wednesday Eve for most regions in
Southern Ontario. Flurries could last up to Thursday.
The snow that will come from this system will generally be wet and heavy, lots of snow could
melt on contact, slushy and slippery condition is expected all through Southern Ontario.

Forecast for selected locations

Windsor - 5 cm, start off as rain, snow will get mixed in later on. Minimal amounts for Tuesday and Wednesday
London - 15-20cm, start off as mix, turns into wet snow late evening. Break early Tuesday, snow starts again by afternoon
Toronto - 15-20cm start off as mix, turns into wet snow late evening. Break early Tuesday, snow starts again by afternoon
Barrie - 20-25cm Snow into Tuesday Morning, snow starts again Tuesday Afternoon
Niagara Region - 10-20cm rain-snow mix into wet snow overnight, snow starts again Tuesday Afternoon
Kingston - 5-10cm Rain-snow mix starts late afternoon ends late morning, rain or snow starts again Tuesday afternoon
Ottawa - 20-30cm Snow starts in the evening, turns into rain-snow mix Tues After, switches back to snow late evening
Sudbury - 15-25cm Snow from Monday eve into Wednesday


It took quite a bit of overactive brain cells to go through the last few days, the models been doing double takes on the storm. One of the best consistency I've seen on the first wave, and quite alot of bickering on the second. I am able to come up with a conclusion nevertheless, and I am pretty confident that this will be the track.

Rain snow mix should start in Toronto by the afternoon hours and the rush hour traffic is going to be a mess with the slush. This part is almost guaranteeing 5-10 cm to most parts of Southern Ontario and it will all be very messy( not the nice and fluffy kind, ah that sucks).

When the coastal low gathers and moves inland, this must be causing many meteorologists headaches(hello Brett? probably why he still didn't come up with a forecast). The bulk of energy will be suffered by Southern Quebec and Southeastern Ontario, the places near the lakes and East of Montreal probably gonna suffer alot of rain. A little North you will probably find Ottawa enjoying quite a snowstorm out of this.

The wrap up band should(emphasizing on the should) pack something to Toronto, not only will this bring a general good amount of snow, this should also set up the already active lakes( a meter of snow for Exeter anyone?).

Anyways, enough with the talking and lets enjoy the first major snowstorm of the season!( or will we?)

Observation post will be open tomorrow afternoon and extending all the way to Wednesday, I will be actively updating on the latest information and hope all of you could provide something in the comments section.