Tuesday Jan 26 2009 9:00 AM EDT- A powerful low pressure system associated with crippling winter weather is heading to Southern Ontario. It is currently bringing significant snowfall accumulations and a killer ice storm in the central US. The mix bag is not expected to reach our region, but will see an ubandant amount of snow The failure to recognize the eventual northwest shift of the model continued to be displayed by Environment Canada and The Weather Network.In fact, the track of this system and its moisture is still continuing to shift northwest. This means a higher snowfall total for most of Southern Ontario. Snow should begin in Southwestern Ontario late evening and reaching the GTA just passed midnight. Snow should continue with a few minor breaks in between til late afternoon. Snow will be heavy at times and could hamper the morning rush hour badly. With the south easterly wind early in the system. Lake enhancement could be expected from Oakvile into Hamilton. Additional accumulations should be minor due to many areas in the lake being frozen. 15 to 25 centimeters of snow is expected for areas south and east of the chattam-Newmarket-Ottawa line with less accumluations northwest of this line. Winter Storm warnings had been issued for areas expecting more than 10cm of snow. This warning could be expanded and some parts could be upgraded to extreme winter storm warning as the situation continued to be monitored.
Forecasted Amount for selected cities:
Toronto 18-20 cm
Hamilton 20-24 cm
London 16-18 cm
Windsor - 15-16 cm
Barrie - 10 cm
Niagara Region - 20-24cm
Kingston - 24-30 cm
Peterborough - 17-19cm
Kitchner/Waterloo-17-19cm
Guelph-18-20cm Ottawa - 17-21 cm
Sudbury - 2-4 cm
This system is perhaps the biggest winter storm of the season. Maybe not for us, but for the generally eastern half of North America. This system had the biggest swath of of more than 15cm of snow and is bringing a historical ice storm to Kentucky, Southern Missouri, Illinois and Indiana.
It is really convenient how EC and TWN finally recognized this storm LESS than ONE DAY before the event. I've been calling for this system to trend NW ever since 3 days ago, it isn't until today that the major forecasters finally started calling it. This is truly some horrible forecasting.
Models are still trending NW and stronger as I speak and I can even see the forecasted amount upped later today.
This is all I have now and expect an update and a further detail later on throughout the day.
3 comments:
Truly incredible. You have forecasted this event well in advance. But the jury is still out, Accuweather forces their large accumulations well to the south of yours, so we'll see who ends up correct in the end.
I haven't seem this much amount of model discrepency in terms of precipitation field in quite a long time.
You should post this on Canadian Weather.org
I have been in snow removal for years and ec and thwn are useless thanks for the great forecasts . who are you guys and if you are really teens then you have a great future ahead of you.
-Thanks! accuweather is an extremely US northeast based forecaster and tend to ignore Canada and the midwest which I always find their foecast incorrect.
-Thanks again. Yeah, I myself is currently in grade 10. :)
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