Monday, January 5, 2009

Dissagreement between models causing confusion




While the storm has not changed much, there is one particular outlier which is doing alot of annoyance to forecasters. The Nam continues to bring very little moisture to the North side of this system. Giving perhaps only 5cm to Toronto and even less for Southern Ontario.

While this seemed to be an unlikely senerio. I would still like to hold on a bit before making a final call. My current thought still remains as 10-15cm for Southwestern Ontario(5-10 for Windsor area) 15-20cm for the GTA and 20-30cm for Eastern and parts of Central Ontario.

The system is developing quite nicely right now in Southern US, showing a huge swath of moisture. The low will move Northeast then North up towords Ohio later tonight into tommorow and snow should start around the shores of lake Erie in the evening. The storm currently looks more moisture laden than the modeled had showned. Whether this will translate into snow for our area is still needing to be determined.

My final call on this system could be delayed until tommorow afternoon

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