Hype and Disappointment, blame the models

We are knows the story. Ever since 00z run of models yesterday, a big deep shock and depression downed at snowstorm loving folks in southern Ontario. A dramatic shift to the east of almost all major models.Followed by confirmation throughout the day.

We all know the tendencies of models around this time range, flip and flop. What constitute a good forecast is forecasting what is gonna happen, instead of forecasting what the models are showing or what the models are gonna show. People fall victim to that unfortunately, and that includes meteorologist.

Lets break down the dynamics of this storm. A deepening low off the gulf, stalling and sliding east before moving along the coast. Even before the model shift, we all know there is three scenerios with this system as I mentioned in the previous post. Looks like the senerio of this system moving west of us is almost nil while the scenerio that gives us the best chance of snowstorm still remains. The recent models tend to let the low travel out on the coast. Missing most if not all of southern Ontario.

I think this kind of track would be likely. We all know storms this year never do that. It will either get supressed out to sea or move further inland, and the further inland track definitely seemed more probable.

I think we will see the storm back in the models within a few more runs along with negative tilting action, but which place will get the brunt of the snow is still to be watched. A 50 km shift will do alot to the storm, and this thing looks to go down the wire. The bullseye of the storm is still anywhere from Toronto to Montreal at this point, with western Ontario on the outer edge.

The most likely track which I think would be is for this system to travel Along DC coast, but brings inland as it reaches the tri-stae area. It will cut north into the eastern end of lake Ontario. This track will bring the most snow to Kingston/Ottawa with decent amount of snow Toronto east and Quebec city west.

The storm is being too much overhyped, but the possibilities are still out there folks.