Sunday Jan 4 2008A strong low pressure system is set to bring wintery weather to all of Southern Ontario Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The main bulk of moiture will move north and phase with another low pressure from the west, bringing a complex and powerful winter storm. The centre of the low pressure system will be quite strong, and will moving directly along the Southern lakes. a general 15-25cm with locally higher amounts are expected for most of Southern Ontario with slighly less amounts to the extreme south along the shores. Strong wind will accompy this system with wind gust exceeding 50km/h. There are still three more days left until the low pressure system arrives and some minor changes should be expected to the final forecast. This system will be a slow mover and have the possibility of exceeding 24 hours. Winter Storm watches are issued for most of Southern Ontario. Stay tuned for further details as the storm draws nearer.
It is the last day of the break for me before school starts again and this day will be quite busy. I got a novel to write, a website to run and now an exciting storm to forecast.
Over the last day, there are some slight wobbles with the models, but my main thoughts on this system remains unchanged and I have the exact forecast in mind this time yesterday. It is good to get this consistency.
Wishcasting is a very bad label among us weather nerds, but unfortunately I see alot of "indirect" wishcasting among many in the forums. Some people in the US northeast forum always claim that there forecast have no wishcast what so ever( even their blog name suggest that). But when countless big storms you forecast turn to nothing and you use anything possible to prove that a big winter storm is eminent when all the evidences are against you. I'm sorry, but that sounds like wishcasting to me.
The irony behind that is when someone from other regions point that out, they got labeled wishcasting instead. It is a funny double standard.
Yes I am calling out a few people here, not gonna mention the users but you know who I'm talking about.
Enough with my complaining, lets get on with the storm!
Like I mentioned previously, I am quite satified with the models right now. A little wobble here and there by all of them but not nearly enough to change the track I have in mind. Snow should begin in the windsor Tuesday evening and slowly progresses overnight. We shall not see the end of snow at least until Wednsday overnight and by that time, strong lake effect bands already set up through many areas.
Forecast discussions thread will be set up tonight and final forecast with warning will be out Tuesday Morning.
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