The next few days will be a tad disappointing.
What originally looked like two storms withered away. Leaving us with a few flurries last night and some light ice coming up. However, a much likely storm threat is coming up.
This swath of moisture looks to be coming off Texas-Mexico Border, joining up with some colder air and another low pressure from the west. The senerio we are looking at is a low pressure system tracking up into the Ohio valley.
The previous models show the stronger low going off the coastal regions, however, most of the recent models(GFS, Euro and GGEM) is bringing this thing back. The Euro does not show a coastal low at all and the other two should a stronger in-land low.
When models start to come together around the day 4-5 period, it is always a good sign. I usually don't call amounts this early, but I will say 15-25cm with more possible seems pretty likely at this time.
The mixing and rain threat for this storm does not seemed to be too high. Unless the models start a warmer trend from now on, the only areas prone to mixing is near the southern lakes(as usual). There is a big dome of arctic air to our North and west. I don't see that being pushed away easily at this time of the year.
I think I will have a much better grip on this storm on Sunday and expect my primary forecast and watches to be issued Sunday night. I will have an update tomorrow.
After this storm, we will be in for the coldest arctic air of the season. We could get into our first -20 below in a while! It looks like it will be the best shot at some record breaking during the 6-14 days time frame.
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