First of all, happy Chinese New Year to whom who celebrate it!
After Long period of quiet, the weather is finally stirring up again. What we have now is a slow and powerful, but a tricky winter storm to forecast.
This storm will be a tad difficult to explain but I will try my best
Originally 3-4 days ago, the GFS and Euro had a storm cutting the great lakes, giving mixing to most of Southern Ontario around the 29-30th. However, the last two days, the GFS had this system suppressed so much south that even major northeast cities misses this storm.
When the GGEM got into range, it had a complete different solution. It shows the main low cutting right up along the Southern great lakes, giving a significant winter storm to us. The GFS and the Euro now also is starting to trend this way. Instead of a storm coming around the we now have a huge bulk of moisture trapped under starting tommorow and will slowly move its way up. There is still so much disagreement with the models in terms of everything from the time frame, temperature and the track that it is best to wait it out to see how exacly things play out.
What makes this so difficult to forecast is the high pressure up in our area which is blocking this system from moving up. When, how and where these high pressures break down will be the key to how this system will turn out and that is exactly why there is so much disagreement right now. The map above demonstrate the two possible tracks this low can take depending on the change of the high pressure. The time also is key. There is actual two swath of moistures. The frontal moisture shown by the GFS and the moisture at the back along with the low shown by the GGEM. Both of these moiture bands are also key things to watch as this storm develops.
If this storm were to move in, this will be a classic big winter storm. It has the typical comma form and the fronts at the right place. Which means we are in for a very organized winter storm which typically brings 15-25cm with higher amounts possible.
The forecast snowfall map is what I think is gonna eventually happen, for the models disagreeing so much, I actual have some decent confidence in this map. Warning map with watches should be out tommorow.
this one is a very interest beast to watch and develope
6 comments:
Big Storm lol
Looks like more than 10-15cm.
is there any chance u can find out or even know if there is snow this coming weekend for sat and sunday???
me to as a storm spotter for many years and for many org's it is mega huge
one more thing do you know if we are going to be on the warm side of this storm?
Were going to be on the Cold side, there is alot of cold air in place. All snow.
Likely 10+cm.
10 cm....i'm sure there's gonna be more.....accuweather is saying south of the border which will not hit toronto, ontario....and head to the east by wednesday.....too far to tell...i wish this storm won't hit us on saturday
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