Yes, I know today is not Nov 1st and I know my winter forecast isn't out yet, but weather had taken a quite surprising turn this week. What a supposedly rain event with a few inches of snow had turned into a big early season Nor'Easter, bringing havoc to the unprepared areas in upstate New York and Southeastern Ontario as well as this blog out of its sleep. Before I put out some actual forecasts and thoughts let me put out the storm forecast procedure we will have on this blog for all the winterstorms this season.
All Winterstorms that effects the eastern half of North America will get special names in my blogs when they qualify, the qualification of the winterstorms are:
a) forecasted to brings 10+ cm( 4 inches) of snow to a large town or a city
and or
b) forecasted to bring significant icing to a large town or city
winterstorm names are retired when they either brings significant snow and ice amounts to large cities or creats massive damage and money loss.
lake effect precipitation will get an exception to this rule and will not be named.
Here is the names prepared for the 08-09 winterstorm season:
Albert Brian Christine Daniel Ernesto Fred George Helen Ivan Jason Kit Leon Michael Nick Omar Paul Rick Samantha Terry Wanda
The forecast procedure will go as the following, there will be 5 posts made concerning one winterstorm:
Post 1 : Storm Possibility( 5-7 days out)
This post will be made when a model shows consistancy in the long range of a system winterstorm. Thoughts in between these period will be added onto the post as edits.
Post 2: Storm Forecast Primary Edition(3 or 4 days out)
The first forecast and map of acumulations will come out, the winterstorm will be named.
Post 3: Storm Forecast Discussions (1-4 days out)
discussions about the changes of the track, nature and other things about the storm will be put out, Thoughts in between these period will be added onto the post as edits.
Post 4: Storm Forecast Final Edition(12 hours to 24 hours out)
The final forecasts and thoughts about the winterstorm
Post 5: Storm Observation( While the storm is taking place)
There will be constant edits while the storm is taking place on the radar, the track, and observations from different places. I will try to get as many reports as possible from various locations across the effected areas.
Post 6: Post Storm Conclusion
A summary of how much acumulations had fallen and other reports about damge, effect, how the forecasts turned out ETC.
And now onto the actual forecast....
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