I am GLAD to see the trend continuing from the theme of last winter. Environment Canada reverting back to my original thought. Apparently, they now updated anybody North of Hamilton with a winter storm warning and given the GTA 10-15cm of snow to work with!
Sound familiar? well, look down and you will see why. ;)
I am happy to say there aren't any adjustment that I would be making with my forecast. I will probably lower the London amount to 4-8cm, but probably that is all. I still fully expect the transition time to be the same as what I had down below.
What a fun roller coaster ride this was indeed! Great start to another winter!
PS: Since I don't have much to say today, feel free to ask any questions regarding this storm. I would try to answer them all.
16 comments:
good job thats why I follow your blog
how much more snow after the rain in toronto
Amazing! Snow finally!!!!! But they are forecasting rain too :( ....will there be any snow at all left over or will it all be washed away? (mississauga area)
But 10-15 is great news :) if that is from environment which, i think can be trusted, then the weather network has been lying to us....
Thx guys, first of all, yeah definitely go with environment Canada over TWN. There is no way we receive that much rain.
Right now I am watching the possibility of us getting dry-slotted. Meaning that we may not receive as much rain after the switchover. As for now I am sticking with 10mm, which will melt some snow, but definitely not everything.
As for the backside snow. We are gonna be in a MASSIVE snowsquall event after this system. In fact, Toronto may even get involved somewhat. Right now I am thinking 3-5cm by Thursday morning as the backside snow/snowsquall behind the system.
This is music to my ears! I am so excited. I definitely turn into a little kid around the holidays. I have been wishing for snow ever since december 1st.
i have noticed that twn always underestimates everything greatly. such as the major system i recieved on last years christmas eve. they said it would fall as rain but i recieved about 15cm of snow.
I am continuing to follow your blog and am impressed by your accuracy, one final question, will we really get up to 6 degrees Celsius wednesday afternoon?
Thank you very much
TWN not just underestimates, sometimes they would just be plain wrong.
Depends on where you are, I am thinking 4-6 near the Lakeshore. However, it should be pretty short lived. Cold front should be able to slide throw quickly in the evening.
What is your anticipation for Guelph?
15-20 cm's? with a 1-2 hour window of rain, followed by 4-6 cm's?
I doubt Guelph is going to see more than Toronto in terms of snowfall initially. However, the backside squall looks much better for you guys.
Speaking of snow squalls... what is the anticipation for those?
When you say Guelph is expected to receive more... 570 news was saying 10 cm Wednesday night and Thursday... any truth to that?
Not sure where my last post ended up... but where are we expecting in terms of Squalls after for Guelph/Kitchener/Waterloo area?
Right now you guys should be looking at 8-12cm Wednesday Night into Thursday. However, the snowsquall shouldn't stop there, I think additional amount could be seen Thursday Night to Friday.
PS: The comments are moderated before it is posted, just be patient, when I see it, it will appear.
The snow is cool, but an equally important aspect of this storm is the wind. Windsor-Sarnia-London are in for a heck of windstorm Wednesday evening with tight isobars and a big contribution from the isaolobaric field (sharp pressure rises in the wake of the low to the SW of the centre of circulation). Wouldn't be surprised to see gusts > 100 km/h in these areas tomorrow early thru late eve.
Just wanted to say that my dad just called me outside. I opened the door and cold flurries hit my face. It begins.....I can hardly wait!
Yep, you definitely nailed it. Was watching the weather this morning, and they mentioned something about another potential storm next week Tuesday (the 15th).
Any opinions on that, or is it still too early to tell? I'm supposed to fly out to New York early in the morning, so Im hoping that all is quiet then :)
I don't know why all this TWN bashing. They nailed this one for the GTA. For days they've been saying 5-10 cm with a change to rain and a high of 4-6 C. This is what happened. They were also bang on with most storms last year including the pre Christmas storm on the 23rd. Thing is, sometimes what they are forecasting can be missed when you just take a quick look at their forecast since in the long range they only show the weather for the "day period" on their website. So sometimes when a major weather event happens at NIGHT you won't see it on the site and it looks like they missed it. The show the night icon on the TV locals though.
The storm was actually on December 24th. TWN forecasted a 40% chance of drizzle I remember. So I went to bed, woke up on the 24th, and at about 10am this large winter storm giving us about 13cm of snow rolled in.
And the storm on the 18th was said to bring about 10cm of snow, when in fact it brought about 25cm of snow.
and for days they've been saying 20-30 mm of rain with 2-5cm of snow and highs of 5
Just saying...
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