Friday, December 4, 2009

I don't get excited over the wrong storm!

Okay... maybe that isn't quite true last year, because I was excited all the time. However, what I really wanted to say is the fact that this storm is definitely the real deal!

Squall
The snowbelts are finally getting their act together with the lake cranking things up a notch. Up to 15cm of snow could fall areas west of Georgian Bay. First snowsquall warning this winter! Finally!

Clipper
Don't forget about this little guy! It should be the first accumulating snow for the non snowbelt area. Same thought, 2-5cm for most areas except extreme South Western Ontario.

Ice????

This beast of a storm looks amazing with the current models. A scary looking 970mb Colorado low with plenty of moisture, ready to crush any high pressure in its way.

Right now, it looks like the surface temperature wont be an issue for this system. Like I've predicted for the last two weeks, the storms after "Alex" will have plenty of cold air to work with. The last few GFS just proved my point, even with the low tracking so far above us in the 0z and 6z, we still struggled to have the temperature climbing above freezing(ignore TWN and EC, they are just doing their usual gimmicks).

The 12z Euro as well as the the 12,18z GFS backed down south, with the median having the low traveling right above my house. Usually, this means that we will be getting mostly rain and ice, however, it is mostly if not all snow with the current models.

What this suggest is the fact that we would either be getting a big ice storm or a big snow storm out of this. Make no mistake, this also could mean that some areas of Southern Ontario would get an ice storm while other areas would be getting mainly snow at the same time.

With plenty of cold air and moisture with this system

My super early prediction

Okay... I usually don't give out numbers this early, but I'm hyped up and just want to get this out of my gut!

With the low tracking just South of Lake Erie into Lake Ontario. 15-25cm for Eastern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe. 15-20cm Southwestern Ontario with alot of freezing rain.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Ah, I find this interesting, because the weather network is showing 20-30mm of rain in the golden horseshoe, and only about 5cm of snow in the following day. (thursday)

But I am holding out for a big snow dumping. (Last year they said that we would get 10cm on dec 19, but we probably got about 30cm in just a few hours, and i was snowed in)