We are going to go on a rough ride! This is as good as it gets folks! 6 days away from a storm, with almost all models tracking a winter storm storm associated with a Colorado low. All snow starved folks watches on as we will go through 6 days of model reading and forecasting til the start of the event. The game is on!
Snowsqualls
Northwest wind should give areas from Parry Sound into Barrie and Allison 3-5cm of snow tonight. Nothing spectacular for these areas.
The Snow before the storm
We should be able to get our first taste of winter before the arrival of this Colorado low. An Alberta Clipper should drop down to Southern Ontario next Monday. Right now, it looks like a good 2-5cm for most of Southern Ontario. I think we should get somewhat relieved after finally seeing some snow after this system. I will probably do a small forecast for this system Sunday(while having updates the next two days as well).
The Breakdown
Snow, Ice, Freezing Rain, Rain and all that fun stuff could be possible from this system. All the models all show a pretty deep low pressure shooting from Colorado, east into the Midwest and turning northeast. The biggest question right now is definitely the position of this low in the midwest(further north or south) as well as how sharp, will this turn northeast be. This is will the different models all have different ideas about.
The GFS shows the storm moving WNW to below lake Erie, then taking a sharp 75 degree turn north into Toronto and out to Northwestern Quebec. This should give the Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario 10-15cm with some mixing. I personally don't like this track because I don't see this storm turning this sharp north with a high pressure dominating up there.
The GGEM is way north. Giving us 5cm of snow to work with before ice and rain takes over. This model is always warm biased most of the time and often the northwest outlier. I am not favouring this track right now.
The Euro and Ukmet I think has the best handle right now. A low traveling from Colorado into Southern Illinois, turning 45 degrees into western apps, exiting into extreme Southern Quebec. This is not only the most likely track right now but also the one that give us the best case scenerio for snow.
There are Ensemble members of different models suppresing this system alot more South, barely edging us in Southern Ontario. Once again, they are definitely the Southeastern ouliers right now.
The position of the low as well as the movement is key to what kind and how much the precipitation we will be getting. A primary guess from me is that this storm will bring mostly snow with some rain/ice mixed in with a track somewhat like what the Euro is showing right now. I feel that I should get a handle of this storm when the NAM comes in range. This seemed to be a pattern I find this year with NAM being the most accurate model so far. Once again, we are quite a bit away and right now we are just trying to get the big picture right.
Watch, analyse and enjoy!
3 comments:
Hello there. I find your blog very interesting. It is also nice to find a weather forecast where the person running it actually favours the snow. I cannot wait for a big snowfall (or any snowfall at all), and it angers me slightly when all the reporters on tv are grateful for warm temperatures and rain in december, while I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.
I was wondering if you see any significant snowfall in the mississauga/oakville area anytime soon. We've only experienced rain so far.
Thank you.
like what I've been saying in this post. I am currently tracking a system for next Wed, Thur. Right now, it looks like we are going to receive quite a bit of snow from it although it is also quite possible to see some rain, ice pellets and freezing rain. Just keep tuning in here, I will have the latest info on this.
greatjob
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