Winter Storm Albert Observation

Wednesday
3:35 EDT - Majority of the snow had tampered off. Up to two foot of snow had been reported in some parts of the upper state. Ottawa received 12cm

Tuesday
6:40pm edt- Light to moderate snow being reported at ottawa international and also the winds are ramping up with gusts up to 70km/h. There have also been reports of heavy bursts of snow in the kingston area.

4.30 PM EST - Ottawa, Ontario starts to see the first bits of flurries, parts of Pen. State and New York state in the higher elevations already got up to 12 inches of snow!

11.58 AM EST - Snow are being reported in higher elevations in New York State and even parst of New Jersey. There aren't much changes to the track and it looks like my map and forecast will verify pretty well.

If you are living in the effected area, it will be greatly appreciated if you can put up your own observations down in the comments sections

First Winter Storm of the season takes a surprise early visit part 2

Edit: Another things to add is the how format of these forecasts gonna be, the italics will be the actual forecasts from us and the rest will be our thoughts, things we want to blab out and well... the fun stuff!

Monday, October 27,2008 5:00 EST
A low pressure system is set to explode off the Mid Atlantic Coast moving due north across the Axis of Northwest New York State into Southern Quebec. This sudden outburst of moisture is set to produce heavy rain Due east of the southern Ontario/Quebec border and heavy wet snow East and North of it. The models had made a sudden shift of change hinting for heavier precip starting this morning and had been consistent for 2 runs. 15-30cm of snow could fall between a narrow strip of area in Upstate New york, southeastern Ontario and eastern Quebec. Lake effect snow can set up east of this system in the traditional snowbelts. The last run of model had the storm a fairly consistent track with a bit of a westward shift. Due to the fact that this is a early season storm, a little bit of warmup will change the snowfall total dramatically. The first bit of the snowfall will melt on contact due to the warmer ground.

Forecasts Number 1 For Southern Ontario Cities:
Windsor - 0 - trace cm
London - 1-3 cm
Toronto - trace cm
Barrie - 1-3 cm
Niagra Region - 1 cm
Kingston - 2-5 cm
Ottawa - 15-25cm
Sudbury - 0 cm

This storm caught many people by surprise and that includes me, the last few days I've been busy making websites and such and not been paying too much attention to the weatherman and Wham! This winterstorm pops up!

This one will be one to remember for the folks in eastern Ontario and Upstate Newyork mainly due to the timing of it. When do you ever seen a winterstorm happen in October? Yeah sure it is very late in October and all, the truth of the matter is, it is still October!

Winterstorm Albert, as I would call it, will come out of nowhere. A centre of low pressure gathers these moiture from mid-atlantic, combining with the cold air from the northwest fuels up this rare storm. It will move due north for the next few days then taking a northeast turn.

a narrow swath of area will see 15-30 cm(6-12 inches) snow and parts of the higher elevations in New York State could see up to 40cm(15 inches). New York City will missed out on this, maybe seeing some flurries Tuesday night.

Lake effect snow will set up east of this system. Areas south of Georgian bay, Lake Huron, Lake Ontario, Lake Erie will see acumulating lake effects, it could be especially Heavy southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Unfortunately, me and Daniel will be missing all the fun. Toronto will only receive trace amounts of snow from a few lake effect bands. One things to note though is the continues slight west push of this system, this could mean that Toronto have an outside chance of getting into the acummulations range, but I doubt it.

Some say that this storm could be signs of things to come for the winter, but I respectively disagree, while getting a snowstorm this early may be rare, it happens because of the special dynamics of the weather pattern right now, (which could change significantly for the winter), not because this winter will be even colder because its already snowing early. (Hope this makes sense!)

Folks thats getting this thing though, be prepared and have fun! When do you ever seen snow on the ground when treat or treating?

First Winter Storm of the season takes a surprise early visit part 1

Yes, I know today is not Nov 1st and I know my winter forecast isn't out yet, but weather had taken a quite surprising turn this week. What a supposedly rain event with a few inches of snow had turned into a big early season Nor'Easter, bringing havoc to the unprepared areas in upstate New York and Southeastern Ontario as well as this blog out of its sleep. Before I put out some actual forecasts and thoughts let me put out the storm forecast procedure we will have on this blog for all the winterstorms this season.

All Winterstorms that effects the eastern half of North America will get special names in my blogs when they qualify, the qualification of the winterstorms are:

a) forecasted to brings 10+ cm( 4 inches) of snow to a large town or a city
and or
b) forecasted to bring significant icing to a large town or city

winterstorm names are retired when they either brings significant snow and ice amounts to large cities or creats massive damage and money loss.

lake effect precipitation will get an exception to this rule and will not be named.

Here is the names prepared for the 08-09 winterstorm season:
Albert Brian Christine Daniel Ernesto Fred George Helen Ivan Jason Kit Leon Michael Nick Omar Paul Rick Samantha Terry Wanda

The forecast procedure will go as the following, there will be 5 posts made concerning one winterstorm:

Post 1 : Storm Possibility( 5-7 days out)
This post will be made when a model shows consistancy in the long range of a system winterstorm. Thoughts in between these period will be added onto the post as edits.


Post 2: Storm Forecast Primary Edition(3 or 4 days out)
The first forecast and map of acumulations will come out, the winterstorm will be named.

Post 3: Storm Forecast Discussions (1-4 days out)
discussions about the changes of the track, nature and other things about the storm will be put out, Thoughts in between these period will be added onto the post as edits.

Post 4: Storm Forecast Final Edition(12 hours to 24 hours out)
The final forecasts and thoughts about the winterstorm

Post 5: Storm Observation( While the storm is taking place)
There will be constant edits while the storm is taking place on the radar, the track, and observations from different places. I will try to get as many reports as possible from various locations across the effected areas.

Post 6: Post Storm Conclusion
A summary of how much acumulations had fallen and other reports about damge, effect, how the forecasts turned out ETC.

And now onto the actual forecast....