I don't get excited over the wrong storm!

Okay... maybe that isn't quite true last year, because I was excited all the time. However, what I really wanted to say is the fact that this storm is definitely the real deal!

Squall
The snowbelts are finally getting their act together with the lake cranking things up a notch. Up to 15cm of snow could fall areas west of Georgian Bay. First snowsquall warning this winter! Finally!

Clipper
Don't forget about this little guy! It should be the first accumulating snow for the non snowbelt area. Same thought, 2-5cm for most areas except extreme South Western Ontario.

Ice????
This beast of a storm looks amazing with the current models. A scary looking 970mb Colorado low with plenty of moisture, ready to crush any high pressure in its way.

Right now, it looks like the surface temperature wont be an issue for this system. Like I've predicted for the last two weeks, the storms after "Alex" will have plenty of cold air to work with. The last few GFS just proved my point, even with the low tracking so far above us in the 0z and 6z, we still struggled to have the temperature climbing above freezing(ignore TWN and EC, they are just doing their usual gimmicks).

The 12z Euro as well as the the 12,18z GFS backed down south, with the median having the low traveling right above my house. Usually, this means that we will be getting mostly rain and ice, however, it is mostly if not all snow with the current models.

What this suggest is the fact that we would either be getting a big ice storm or a big snow storm out of this. Make no mistake, this also could mean that some areas of Southern Ontario would get an ice storm while other areas would be getting mainly snow at the same time.

With plenty of cold air and moisture with this system

My super early prediction

Okay... I usually don't give out numbers this early, but I'm hyped up and just want to get this out of my gut!

With the low tracking just South of Lake Erie into Lake Ontario. 15-25cm for Eastern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe. 15-20cm Southwestern Ontario with alot of freezing rain.

All hands on deck and buckle your seatbelts!

We are going to go on a rough ride! This is as good as it gets folks! 6 days away from a storm, with almost all models tracking a winter storm storm associated with a Colorado low. All snow starved folks watches on as we will go through 6 days of model reading and forecasting til the start of the event. The game is on!

Snowsqualls
Northwest wind should give areas from Parry Sound into Barrie and Allison 3-5cm of snow tonight. Nothing spectacular for these areas.

The Snow before the storm
We should be able to get our first taste of winter before the arrival of this Colorado low. An Alberta Clipper should drop down to Southern Ontario next Monday. Right now, it looks like a good 2-5cm for most of Southern Ontario. I think we should get somewhat relieved after finally seeing some snow after this system. I will probably do a small forecast for this system Sunday(while having updates the next two days as well).

The Breakdown
Snow, Ice, Freezing Rain, Rain and all that fun stuff could be possible from this system. All the models all show a pretty deep low pressure shooting from Colorado, east into the Midwest and turning northeast. The biggest question right now is definitely the position of this low in the midwest(further north or south) as well as how sharp, will this turn northeast be. This is will the different models all have different ideas about.

The GFS shows the storm moving WNW to below lake Erie, then taking a sharp 75 degree turn north into Toronto and out to Northwestern Quebec. This should give the Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario 10-15cm with some mixing. I personally don't like this track because I don't see this storm turning this sharp north with a high pressure dominating up there.

The GGEM is way north. Giving us 5cm of snow to work with before ice and rain takes over. This model is always warm biased most of the time and often the northwest outlier. I am not favouring this track right now.

The Euro and Ukmet I think has the best handle right now. A low traveling from Colorado into Southern Illinois, turning 45 degrees into western apps, exiting into extreme Southern Quebec. This is not only the most likely track right now but also the one that give us the best case scenerio for snow.

There are Ensemble members of different models suppresing this system alot more South, barely edging us in Southern Ontario. Once again, they are definitely the Southeastern ouliers right now.

The position of the low as well as the movement is key to what kind and how much the precipitation we will be getting. A primary guess from me is that this storm will bring mostly snow with some rain/ice mixed in with a track somewhat like what the Euro is showing right now. I feel that I should get a handle of this storm when the NAM comes in range. This seemed to be a pattern I find this year with NAM being the most accurate model so far. Once again, we are quite a bit away and right now we are just trying to get the big picture right.

Watch, analyse and enjoy!

More Storm Tracking!

No map today unfortunately. I've got to move through this quick since I got alot of homework today(yay 24 physics question sets!).

Dec 5-7 Storm
Chance of accumlating snow: 30% 10cm+: 10%

I was semi excited to see a storm off the coast 2 days ago because I feel the models are definitely going to trend west. It did, but not by much. Most models are surprisingly consistent and in agreement in placing this low offshore. It barely budged much over the last 2 days on the GFS, Euro and GGEM.

The public enemy is the menacing high pressure to our west. Most models seemed to be confident in picking up a strong swath of high pressure air mass dominating the midwest US into the Great Lakes region. This big bad high pressure seemed to be able to scare off the poor low pressure storm out to sea.

So far, the only model favoring good precipitation inland is the NAM(and is still a good 100km away from giving us anything at all). However it is considered an outlier compared to all the other models. I do believe the models will continue to go west. However, now that we are 3 days away from the event, unless all the major models overestimated the strength of the high pressure, I don't think it could move that much anymore.

Boo Hoo?

Dec 8-10 Storm
Chance of accumlating snow: 80% 10cm+: 30%

Now, this is the one I like my chances in. GFS is very consistent in bringing up a Colorado low to us during the time period. Obviously, the dynamics of this system changed run to run, altering between giving us rain, ice, some snow and alot of snow. Now, I am not going to worry about the trivial stuff right now. The reason I am favouring this system is because I am liking the consistency of the GFS as well as the pattern we are in.

The only problem? We are still too far away.

Rainy Alex
For us snow starved people, all we need is rain right? The answer better be yes because we are in for quite a dumping tommorow. 20-30mm of rain could fall over the course of overnight and tommorow. Remember to bring your umbrella and mourn on what could have been our first awesome winter storm!

Misc.
- Physics is getting tough. I could swear that my grade 11 physics teacher is giving us grade 12 level physics problem to do. Oh boy, I could only imagine doing all this stuff(that would be much harder than this) for four years in university. Oh well.

- Obviously, some smart person wanted to show off their intelligence by posting a hate comment on the post about hate comments. You know, a good classic hate comment is just like a masterful piece of literature. If you want your hate comment to be posted, you should at least put some more effort into it to make it a quality innovative hate comment. Things such as "you are a fucking loser" is just so overused and lame.

Hating Time

What's this? We STILL need to wait for our first measurable amount of snow???? The mood is foul on this first day of this jolly month. It's hating time!

"Winter Storm Alex" not so wintery
Boo! Hate! Hate! Way to trick us snow-starved people like this! The continued westward shift of the models basically confirmed the track as of last night. Here is exactly what I think happened.

The track of the storm is not much off from my original thought, still going to be slightly below the lakes and along west of the apps. However, the storm tracked up too fast. The cold front associated with the clipper that past above would not bring cold arctic air before and during the storm. This caused the storm to travel directly up north with no cold high pressure air mass dominating. A west app track with no cold air this early in winter is never ideal. Places in extreme Southwestern Ontario as well as North of Orillia could see over 5cm from this storm. Anywhere East of London and South should probably get a coating to 2cm.

I am satisfied with the way I handled this system mostly, doing much less model reading and more extrapolation than last year. I think this is definitely a good way to shake off those early season jitters!

Tracking... Don't hate
I am still watching the two systems which I mentioned yesterday and my thoughts are pretty much exactly the same. Tomorrow, I will start talk about them full scale.

Hate Comments
Since the start of this weather blog, I've started to receive quite a bit of comments. Obviously, not all comments I receive for doing all this work are positive. I mean, constructive criticisms are always welcome. However, it still amazes me that some moronic individuals decide that insulting someone's work over the internet is a good way to spend their time. I guess the only thing society gain from these people is a laugh. From time to time, I guess I'll put out these hate comments I received for your enjoyment! :)
Anonymous 1: Haha you young punks trying to predict the weather, leave that to your daddy!

What we have here is a classic case of insecurity, seeing that someone much younger is doing something much more productive with their life. I guess it is quite ironic that this "young punk" here is quite a bit more mature and knowledgable than you.
Anonymous 2: Go back to your country you dirty jap!

There are so many things wrong with this comment. First of all, I am not Japanese. Second of all, this is so incredibly racist that it isn't even funny anymore. Judging someone by the colour of their skin is something I expect from rednecks down south in the states, not a country like Canada where the diversity of culture is celebrated. In this day and age, how a person decide to write something like this on the internet is beyond me, but I guess I've seen worse(e.g. youtube comments).

Like Peter Chao once said(If you don't know him, you are missing some good humour!), " It is time to stop drinking the haterade and start drinking the bubble tea!"

Look beyond!

Short update on Alex
Most of you probably already heard that the models trended quite a bit west over the last few runs. This is pretty much what I thought would happen in the beginning. While this may not be the end of the world, it does make the chance of seeing significant snowfall less likely. I am still sticking with 2-10cm of snow for Golden Horshoe and Southwestern Ontario with the extreme western edge likely seeing over 5cm of snow from this.

"Arctic" Outbreak
Cold air is coming! Despite a lack of snow/cold the last little while, cold air will be arriving shortly after the "winter storm". When, What, Where, Why, How? Let me explain this in some details.

What we have after Alex is a typical ridge trough pattern. Cold arctic air ushering in from the northwest, pushing a trough in the jet stream in the East. Pacific Warmth rush inland, pushing a ridge in the West . We will be in for this general pattern for quite a bit this December, I am guess til at least the 20s(Perhaps most of the winter will consist of this type of general pattern). When this type of pattern occurs, we will definitely have below normal temperatures. However, the snowfall amount could vary.

If the high pressure is just offshore most of the time(Bermuda high provinding a ridge in the extreme SE). When low pressure systems arrive, they will be pushed inland, providing us with the cold side of a winter storm. Translating to above normal snowfall. If the high pressures sit inland as will as above greenland for most of the time. We will be in for a blocking pattern. Low pressure systems will generally stay offshore, providing us with slightly normal snowfall( possibly seeing more though with Alberta Clippers).

I think we will be in for the first scenerio for the first part of this pattern and trancents to a blocking pattern when the arctic air is firmly in place. This particular outbreak will come in a few waves, interrupted by possible winter storms. With each wave bringing colder arctic air.

Wave 1 - Dec 4 - Dec 7
Right after Alex, a cold front will bring the first wave of arctic air. Highs of near 0 and lows around -5 to -7 will be expected.

Wave 2- Dec 10- Dec 13
A second wave of arctic air will blast across after a winter storm around this period. A significant lake effect event should take place during this period.

Wave 3 - Dec 15 to late Dec
A blocking pattern cold lock its place. Lows in the negative high teens into the -20s are expected.

One mistake we often make is basing medium range predictions on models. Unfortunately, models such as the GFS never handle these types of situations well. They tend to fluctuate quite a bit model by model. For example, looking at the 00z GFS last night, it almost appears we are not going to have an arctic outbreak at all(also another reason the 14 days trend on TWN is bs)! The tools we should use for medium range forecast is 1) telecollections 2) general patterns of ensembles/models 3) common sense.

Next Storm?
We will definitely be seeing something in the period of next weekend to early next week. My early guess right now is that we will be seeing out first snowstorm of the winter sometime during the Dec 5-11th period. Right now the models are showing an offshore storm around 5-7th. I won't be surprised if it starts to shift west and track inland over the next few days. If not, there will be a Colorado low setting up around 9-11th. The thing to keep in mind now is that the arctic air is already IN place. The likelihood of seeing a good amount of snow out of a system during this time period will be pretty high.

Schedule?
Obviously, there isn't really a firm schedule on what I will be talking about each day since it is the weather! However, I have a rough idea on what the next few days should go on this blog.

Tomorrow - Winter Storm Alex full forecast
Wednesday- Storm possibility for next winter storm,
Thursday- Alex Observation/Post Storm, more in depth analyzes on the upcoming pattern
Friday to Sunday - Forecast period for next possible winter storm

Don't be too greedy!

Despite the continued juggling by the models today, I grew a lot more confident with how this storm will turn out. As you can see above, here is the 1st amount map of our winter season :)

Surprise Flakes?

A quick Alberta Clipper will drop down into Southern Ontario tonight. It will be mainly cold rain with a some flurries likely on the backside. However, there could be a quick changeover overnight into early morning. If the cold front arrives before a band of precip could, don't be surprised to see a couple of centimeters of snow on the ground tomorrow morning around the Golden Horseshoe as well as Southwestern Ontario. This will finally trigger the lakes a little. Northwest wind should bring 3-5 centimeters of snow to many areas of the Snowbelt.

The Storm

Most of you must be wondering why my forecast amount seems so little whereas the models seemed to interpret a lot more snow. Let me have a few explanations before you start becoming upset with me.

Currently, I am eyeing the west of Apps track right now. Today, most of the models shifted west as was expected. I expect the final track to be something between the Euro and Canadian model as indicated on yesterday’s map.

Like I mentioned yesterday, the concern with this storm is definitely the lack of cold air and when/where will the jets phase for this storm. Unfortunately, with the way things seemed to look right now, it is definitely not in our favour.

One thing I learned last winter is NEVER try interpreting snowfall amounts from particular model runs, especially looking those nice little “snow on ground maps” that some sites have for the models. They are usually never accurate and tend to underestimate the surface heating. Even if things were to occur as say, the 12z GFS indicates, it will definitely not be the 8 inches of snow. The surface temperature is 3-5 Celsius during most of the time period, which is impossible for pure accumulating snow to occur. Instead, what we will have is a long period of rain/wet snow mix with one or two inches on the backside.

With two years of experience under my belt, I think I am getting much better at extrapolating based on the characteristics of the model runs as well as the present meteorological factors. However, this is no where near my final call yet and a very small factor could change the dynamics of things. Right now I am confident with the track, but not yet settled with the other variables.

the anticipation of the first storm

Ti's the season to be jolly indeed. After a rather uninteresting November, winter is finally brewing as we approach the Christmas shopping season.

The Storm
We always get the excitement about the first winter storm we track. Since this is early in the ball game, right now we are just calculating the factors effecting the storm as well as weighing the projected possibilities. Few things to keep in mind right now:

1. We need a perfect set up to receive a major winter storm from this system
2. Arctic air may/may not be fast enough to make this storm cold
3. The models are still having the early season jitters, especially the Euro

With that being said, right now I am leaning towards the middle west app track for this storm and will treat the Euro showing a coastal track the outlier. There is also the possibility of it shifting even more west. Even if with the classic west of App track, I am concerned about the lack of arctic air which could turn snow into rain or mixed. I won't comment on the exact timing or even a vague amount as of now, things aren't too certain yet about this storm(as is always when it is still 4-5 days out).


Arctic outbreak

What IS certain is the fact that a big arctic outbreak will follow the onset of this storm. Temperature will certainly be very winter-like for a while after the 4th. My biggest question about this outbreak is how it will effect the storm track over the next little while. Will the arctic high pressure dominate and push the storms off the coast, leaving us with clippers? Or will the arctic air feed into the storm and leave us the cold side of several big winter storms? I will have a better forecast on this tomorrow as well as a map.

Misc.

Yes, I will still be using the naming system for this winter, I will still wait another 24 hours before giving this storm a name. In other news, the Raptors are horrible right now, but I am still optimistic they will turn around.

This is actually the first weekend in a while which I can actually relax a bit. I hope you like this new style of blog posts. Cheers to another season of winter storm tracking!