Christmas Storm Brewing?

Alright, most of you might have heard the rumours of a new blog starting. Yes, we are working on the final details on that. The basic idea is the fact that I will move the url to a new one(possibly still blogspot) while having the collaboration with another person. Anyhow, before all that is worked out, let's talk about the exciting stuff!

Stormy Pattern Coming up!
Yes, it looks like the sleepy jet stream will turn active again sometime before Christmas, with the arctic high in place as a blocking pattern, look for the possibility of a parade of snow storms coming up!

Christmas Snowstorm?
Models were all over the place the last few days on this system. Showing a variety of scenario that this system could play. Right now, based on the medium range patterns as well as the most recent and consistent model consensus, it looks pretty much certain that we will be receiving some snow out of this. I will start talking about the dynamics of this low tomorrow.

Christmas Break!
Woohoo! Just defeated a series of pre-break tests last week. It is finally for me to enjoy myself :)

Clipper Fun!

Like I've discussed in the patterns post last week, we are now at the point where we shall see a break from big storms. Don't be disappointed, Clippers at this time of the year is still quite fun!

The Christmas Clipper Parade

Looks like our Alberta Clippers will be taking some parade going across Southern Ontario. I will break them down for you.

Clipper number 1- Tomorrow

Looks like we are in for quite the wintery mix tomorrow, a clipper dropping down which will pull some gulf moisture with it. Unfortunately, looks like the surface temperature will change this potential 5-10cm snow event into a wet snow and mix thing. No significant accumulation can occur this way.

Clipper number 2- Monday night- Tues

Once again, we are sitting along the axis for rain or snow. However, recent models are keen on making this an all snow event. I am thinking along the lines of 4-6cm from this system right now. More details on this tomorrow.

Clipper number 3 - Thursday

Since this is still quite a few days away, I am giving the models some time to figure out this small system. I think this could be the biggest one if things are aligned perfectly. Still too far away to tell.


As you can see, I am in quite the rush these few days. Indeed, I have 4 tests next week leading to winter break. I should be able to pull some time to give an indepth analysis on the medium range pattern tomorrow.

Squalls for thought

Strong WNW will now trigger the lakes big time! Time for the snowbelts to have their fun.

Post Winter Storm Charles
This winter storm lived to its potential for sure! I personally received 12cm before the switchover to rain around 10a. People around the lake shore weren't as lucky though, some only received 2-5cm. Areas over to Ottawa and Montreal are still feeling the effect of this storm, it should move out to Atlantic Canada very soon.

Overall, I handled this storm very well including nailing it for the most part almost 2 days out. I would give myself an A- for the forecast for this storm.

Comments??? Feedbacks??? I want to hear from you about how did you area fare in this winter storm

Squalls
The above warning and the red line basically demonstrate my thinking for the snow squalls. It will dominate the next 3 days for the snowbelts. Us in Toronto should be able to get 2-4cm tonight and up to 5-10cm in total over the next 3 days. Areas in the "warning" regions but not in the red line will receive 20-45cm of snowfall. The outskirts fom the warning regions will get 10-20cm. should receive I think the winner from this round of snow squalls will receive over 100cm over the period of the next 3 days. Have fun to you guys!(or not so much fun).

Next Storm
I am watching the time period between the 14-16 for now. Right now, the models are too inconsistent for me to actually say anything about it for now. I think the models will have a much better handle on this tomorrow and my extrapolation should began.

Quick update

I think I am going to call it right here, we are not going to see too much rain from this.

Reason being? dry slot. While most of the preciptation takes place in the form of rain underneath Hamilton. Over to the GTA and our northeast, the snow/rain line just refuse to go over us before the bulk of the precipitation is already down. What this probably mean is, we are going to see a brief 1 hour rain and then drizzle like conditions the rest of the way til it switches back to flurries. There will also be a brief jump of temperature to 4-6 C depending on where you live in the GTA. Once again, very short lived, it will jump back down as we get into evening hours. Folks to our northwest, looks like you wont be seeing too much rain at all. Maybe 5mm, but not much over that.

Wind
One factor I didn't talk about too much is the wind. It looks like Southwestern Ontario is receiving gusts up to 100km/h. Us further northeast won't be seeing the wind as strong, but compunding that with snow, it could make one hell of a morning commute.

Snowsquall
Looks to me this could be one of the biggest squall outbreak in years. I will have more details on that tomorrow. For now, I'll be enjoying and tracking this system.

Nailed!

I am GLAD to see the trend continuing from the theme of last winter. Environment Canada reverting back to my original thought. Apparently, they now updated anybody North of Hamilton with a winter storm warning and given the GTA 10-15cm of snow to work with!

Sound familiar? well, look down and you will see why. ;)

I am happy to say there aren't any adjustment that I would be making with my forecast. I will probably lower the London amount to 4-8cm, but probably that is all. I still fully expect the transition time to be the same as what I had down below.

What a fun roller coaster ride this was indeed! Great start to another winter!

PS: Since I don't have much to say today, feel free to ask any questions regarding this storm. I would try to answer them all.

The Jury is out!

A significant Colorado Low will move into Southern Ontario Tuesday night... Heavy snowfall is expected for most of Southern Ontario with the exception of Niagara Pennisola and extreme Southwestern Ontario. Areas near Windsor should start seeing snow early in the evening progressing into London by Midnight, The GTA should start seeing snow Overnight.
Most areas in Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario as well as Southern Quebec should stay mostly snow throughout the direction of the event. While the changeover vary place by place around the GTA into Southwestern Ontario. Areas transitioned to rain will experience a brief period of backside snow slowly turning into Lake effect. WNW wind is expected to bring significant Lake effect snow behind this low.
Strong damaging winds are expected to bring at times blizzard like condtions to many areas. Here is the forecast for the selected regions:

Toronto 10-15cm start at 4 am transition to rain at 11am
Kingston 17-22cm start at 8 am brief period of rain late afternoon
London 8-13cm start at 1 am transtion to rain at 8am
St.Thomas 5-8cm start at 1 am transtion to rain at 5am
Barrie 18-23cm start at 5am brief period of rain early afternoon
Newmarket 13-18cm start at 4am transition to rain at 12am
Windsor 2-5cm brief period of heavy snow late evening to midnight
Hamilton 5-10cm start at 3 am transtion to rain at 8am
Niagara falls 2-4cm brief period of heavy snow to start off
Allison 16-21cm start at 4am transiton to rain at noon
Peterborough 18-22cm brief period of rain afternoon
Ottawa 23-28cm mixng possible
Montreal 22-27cm mixing possible
Quebec City 25-30cm


Here it is, my full forecast on this thing. Mind you, I will probably do an intermediate update sometime tomorrow. I've spend way too much energy tracking the model runs on this storm and I would not born you with every detail.

Method
With short range forecasting, I generally start to look down into the detail on things. Especially with this storm, where I think the rain/snow line would be a key factor, difference areas in Southern Ontario could get quite a different amount for the snow figure.

In order to get this forecast in good shape, I started to get away from the main models and start to look at radars, current data as well as the short range higher resolution models. This allowed me to give the best estimation on where exactly the rain snow line is going to be all the way across.

The rain snow line
With this storm, a 50 km difference could be alot. The rain snow line is rather relanctant to go over from the Niagara peninsula into the GTA eastward, meaning that anywhere Southwest of Hamilton could see substantially less than the areas northwest.



South???
Why is my forecast quite a bit south than the other forecast and what it appeared on the models recently? It was quite a pleasant surprise to see the models shifting quite a bit south this close in time range. This meant that the models may have underestimated the cold air above us. I fully expect this trend to stay especially with the short range models supportive of this fact.

Spreading the word!

I've been having a frustrating time looking at the models today. All shifted northwest, not a good sign for a big snowstorm here. After viewing today's models, I am quite undermined about the forecast of this system. I need to watch closely how the models evolve tomorrow.

In the meantime, I think I need to side track from weather a bit and talk about this blog and myself in today's post.

Myself

As many of you may already known, I am a 16 year old aspiring meteorologist. I've been interested in weather in general ever since I was 10 and started to do my own forecast since 12. Currently I am in grade 11, fairly busy with my school work. Next year, I will be applying to McGill for Atmospheric Sciences. Hopefully, I would be able to meet my goal and move to Montreal 1 1/2 years from now!

Expansion

This blog is already running for more than a year. I am planning to expand the foretasted area to Southern Quebec as well this winter. However, I don't want to stop there. I am currently looking for anybody who lives in North America under the age of 23 who is willing to join my blog to do a forecasted area of their own. email me at theyoungweatherman@gmail.com

This blog currently gets 100-200 hits per day, a figure I want to expand as well. Most, if not all the visitors I get came from accuweather forums. In order to really increase the traffic of this blog, I need YOUR help! If you enjoy my blog and want to help out, it would be really appreciated if you can help spread the word. This could be done in a variety of ways!

1. Post my blog link to anywhere around the internet, forums, comments, forum signatures etc.
2. Word of mouth! Tell your family, friends, relatives or anybody of interest about my blog!
3. Comment and postive feedback, visit here often! comment often and give positive feedback about my blog in general.

I am currently thinking of innovative ways to expand the outreach of this blog myself, however, this could not be as effective without your support! Thank you so much everybody!

I don't get excited over the wrong storm!

Okay... maybe that isn't quite true last year, because I was excited all the time. However, what I really wanted to say is the fact that this storm is definitely the real deal!

Squall
The snowbelts are finally getting their act together with the lake cranking things up a notch. Up to 15cm of snow could fall areas west of Georgian Bay. First snowsquall warning this winter! Finally!

Clipper
Don't forget about this little guy! It should be the first accumulating snow for the non snowbelt area. Same thought, 2-5cm for most areas except extreme South Western Ontario.

Ice????
This beast of a storm looks amazing with the current models. A scary looking 970mb Colorado low with plenty of moisture, ready to crush any high pressure in its way.

Right now, it looks like the surface temperature wont be an issue for this system. Like I've predicted for the last two weeks, the storms after "Alex" will have plenty of cold air to work with. The last few GFS just proved my point, even with the low tracking so far above us in the 0z and 6z, we still struggled to have the temperature climbing above freezing(ignore TWN and EC, they are just doing their usual gimmicks).

The 12z Euro as well as the the 12,18z GFS backed down south, with the median having the low traveling right above my house. Usually, this means that we will be getting mostly rain and ice, however, it is mostly if not all snow with the current models.

What this suggest is the fact that we would either be getting a big ice storm or a big snow storm out of this. Make no mistake, this also could mean that some areas of Southern Ontario would get an ice storm while other areas would be getting mainly snow at the same time.

With plenty of cold air and moisture with this system

My super early prediction

Okay... I usually don't give out numbers this early, but I'm hyped up and just want to get this out of my gut!

With the low tracking just South of Lake Erie into Lake Ontario. 15-25cm for Eastern Ontario and Golden Horseshoe. 15-20cm Southwestern Ontario with alot of freezing rain.

All hands on deck and buckle your seatbelts!

We are going to go on a rough ride! This is as good as it gets folks! 6 days away from a storm, with almost all models tracking a winter storm storm associated with a Colorado low. All snow starved folks watches on as we will go through 6 days of model reading and forecasting til the start of the event. The game is on!

Snowsqualls
Northwest wind should give areas from Parry Sound into Barrie and Allison 3-5cm of snow tonight. Nothing spectacular for these areas.

The Snow before the storm
We should be able to get our first taste of winter before the arrival of this Colorado low. An Alberta Clipper should drop down to Southern Ontario next Monday. Right now, it looks like a good 2-5cm for most of Southern Ontario. I think we should get somewhat relieved after finally seeing some snow after this system. I will probably do a small forecast for this system Sunday(while having updates the next two days as well).

The Breakdown
Snow, Ice, Freezing Rain, Rain and all that fun stuff could be possible from this system. All the models all show a pretty deep low pressure shooting from Colorado, east into the Midwest and turning northeast. The biggest question right now is definitely the position of this low in the midwest(further north or south) as well as how sharp, will this turn northeast be. This is will the different models all have different ideas about.

The GFS shows the storm moving WNW to below lake Erie, then taking a sharp 75 degree turn north into Toronto and out to Northwestern Quebec. This should give the Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario 10-15cm with some mixing. I personally don't like this track because I don't see this storm turning this sharp north with a high pressure dominating up there.

The GGEM is way north. Giving us 5cm of snow to work with before ice and rain takes over. This model is always warm biased most of the time and often the northwest outlier. I am not favouring this track right now.

The Euro and Ukmet I think has the best handle right now. A low traveling from Colorado into Southern Illinois, turning 45 degrees into western apps, exiting into extreme Southern Quebec. This is not only the most likely track right now but also the one that give us the best case scenerio for snow.

There are Ensemble members of different models suppresing this system alot more South, barely edging us in Southern Ontario. Once again, they are definitely the Southeastern ouliers right now.

The position of the low as well as the movement is key to what kind and how much the precipitation we will be getting. A primary guess from me is that this storm will bring mostly snow with some rain/ice mixed in with a track somewhat like what the Euro is showing right now. I feel that I should get a handle of this storm when the NAM comes in range. This seemed to be a pattern I find this year with NAM being the most accurate model so far. Once again, we are quite a bit away and right now we are just trying to get the big picture right.

Watch, analyse and enjoy!

More Storm Tracking!

No map today unfortunately. I've got to move through this quick since I got alot of homework today(yay 24 physics question sets!).

Dec 5-7 Storm
Chance of accumlating snow: 30% 10cm+: 10%

I was semi excited to see a storm off the coast 2 days ago because I feel the models are definitely going to trend west. It did, but not by much. Most models are surprisingly consistent and in agreement in placing this low offshore. It barely budged much over the last 2 days on the GFS, Euro and GGEM.

The public enemy is the menacing high pressure to our west. Most models seemed to be confident in picking up a strong swath of high pressure air mass dominating the midwest US into the Great Lakes region. This big bad high pressure seemed to be able to scare off the poor low pressure storm out to sea.

So far, the only model favoring good precipitation inland is the NAM(and is still a good 100km away from giving us anything at all). However it is considered an outlier compared to all the other models. I do believe the models will continue to go west. However, now that we are 3 days away from the event, unless all the major models overestimated the strength of the high pressure, I don't think it could move that much anymore.

Boo Hoo?

Dec 8-10 Storm
Chance of accumlating snow: 80% 10cm+: 30%

Now, this is the one I like my chances in. GFS is very consistent in bringing up a Colorado low to us during the time period. Obviously, the dynamics of this system changed run to run, altering between giving us rain, ice, some snow and alot of snow. Now, I am not going to worry about the trivial stuff right now. The reason I am favouring this system is because I am liking the consistency of the GFS as well as the pattern we are in.

The only problem? We are still too far away.

Rainy Alex
For us snow starved people, all we need is rain right? The answer better be yes because we are in for quite a dumping tommorow. 20-30mm of rain could fall over the course of overnight and tommorow. Remember to bring your umbrella and mourn on what could have been our first awesome winter storm!

Misc.
- Physics is getting tough. I could swear that my grade 11 physics teacher is giving us grade 12 level physics problem to do. Oh boy, I could only imagine doing all this stuff(that would be much harder than this) for four years in university. Oh well.

- Obviously, some smart person wanted to show off their intelligence by posting a hate comment on the post about hate comments. You know, a good classic hate comment is just like a masterful piece of literature. If you want your hate comment to be posted, you should at least put some more effort into it to make it a quality innovative hate comment. Things such as "you are a fucking loser" is just so overused and lame.