okay here is the deal. we are dealing with potentially another rainmaker pending where you live from the next system. Battle ground Ontario is in a real battle from this storm. a 25km shift of the track would make a dramatic difference between accumulations.
Yes, we are going to get accumulating snow out of this. However, we do not know exactly how much. Could be 5cm or 30cm.
GFS had been shifting north the last couple runs, everybody else had been pretty much staying put in terms of the track. I expect the final track to be a slightly further south and colder version of this current 00z gfs run. What this means is that extreme southwestern Ontario would get 5 cm before the changeover and an addictional 5cm at the backside. The big cities along Lake Ontario and 401 should get a total of 10-20cm with this track. With more possible if the low is as strong as advertised.
This is what I think should be the the final track at this point. However, rain-snow line is what we are dealing with here and we all know that this is a very tricky business to deal with even until the last second. After such a big break of wintery weather, I really want to say this is going to be a welcome back to winter.
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