Flash Freeze

A cold front associated with the rainstorm is currently moving through. Temperatures could dip into the minus teens overnight tonight with strong wind. Still no strong system in sight as we near the end of winter. More details on the long range tommorow.

STORM MODE BEGINS

I am ready to start storm mode for the storm that is coming in.I have heard reports that there has been some thundersnow reported in michigan and indiana.Windsor has been seeing strong winds and heavy snow but by looking at the radar a dry slot looks like it will be coming in.My thoughts remain the same on snowfall amounts ,with the exception of the west end cities that could get 10-15cm with local amounts of 20cm.Please message me with observations of what is happening in your area in regards to the storm.

Latest on weekend storm

As promised I am back with an update on the upcoming clipper.Latest models show 5-15cm for the GTA,10cm for southwestern ontario and 20+cm near georgian bay and into michigan.Here are my snowfall projections for selected cities:

Toronto 5-12cm
Hamilton/Burl./Miss :10-15cm (due to lake enhancement)
Windsor 5-10cm
London 10-15cm
Barrie 10-15cm
Kingston 2-8cm
Ottawa 2-8cm
Montreal 10-15cm (due to the secondary low developing of the east coast, more moisture will be thrown in)

If you want more cities posted justmessage me on the accuweather forums just go to Daniel05

UPDATE from 18z GFS run

The latest 18z GFS has most of southern ontario getting 10-20cm with locally higher amounts.I wouldn't be suprised if someone gets 25-30cm due to lake effect with east to southeast winds.I will update the blog tommorow afternoon on latest developments.

BTW I must say the lake effect band that has streched from lake huron to lake ontario is quite impressive with very heavy snow in toronto wher there have been reports of 2cm so far.

Next snowmaker comes on saturday

With the last storm that passed by yesterday giving southern ontario a wide variety of precipitation, the next storm that comes is likely going to be all snow for southern ontario including the GTA.Computer models are now starting to come into agreement on the clipper for saturday which for the past few days have been trying to form an east coast storm but given the whole pattern it does not support a such storm.Based on the latest model data it looks much of southern/central and eastern ontario is in line for 5-15cm with local areas receiving as much as 20cm. I will be back after I see the 18z GFS and i will also be posted snowfall amounts by city later tonight.

Winter Storm Rick, potentially big or messy

okay here is the deal. we are dealing with potentially another rainmaker pending where you live from the next system. Battle ground Ontario is in a real battle from this storm. a 25km shift of the track would make a dramatic difference between accumulations.

Yes, we are going to get accumulating snow out of this. However, we do not know exactly how much. Could be 5cm or 30cm.

GFS had been shifting north the last couple runs, everybody else had been pretty much staying put in terms of the track. I expect the final track to be a slightly further south and colder version of this current 00z gfs run. What this means is that extreme southwestern Ontario would get 5 cm before the changeover and an addictional 5cm at the backside. The big cities along Lake Ontario and 401 should get a total of 10-20cm with this track. With more possible if the low is as strong as advertised.

This is what I think should be the the final track at this point. However, rain-snow line is what we are dealing with here and we all know that this is a very tricky business to deal with even until the last second. After such a big break of wintery weather, I really want to say this is going to be a welcome back to winter.

Weather to stir up again

the boring rain is ruining the mood of winter as an usual mid winter thaw brings warm temp and rainstorm to most of North America. However, things look to start up again. The models are surprisingly in good agreement about a storm coming mid week next week. I think right now it is definately in trackable range. I will post a map and further details on this later today. for now though, say goodbye to boring weather and welcome back to winter!

Cool down and warm up

No big storms in sight after the huge bust of a storm these two days. It is really amazing how much the models filtered.
I am currently very busy. Its almost course selection and I am going to grade 11 next year! I just heard about the new AP sciences(advanced placement), which means that I have to start trying in my science class now instead of grade 11 to get my marks up to be quite a bit above the AP class requirement.
but once I have a little bit of time I will have a deeper analyzes of what happened with this storm. For now, we have a quiet period weather wise.
Temperature will be cold the next few days. With values around the negative teens. Not out of the extraordinary though. However, starting Friday, temperature will rise steadily and we might be warm enough for a rainstorm Saturday into Sunday. I will have more details on that in the up coming days.
However, looking on the long range, things seemed to be active again. We might have the jets flow riding storms after storms into our region which seemed to be our winter pattern most of the time this year.