What appeared to be a harmless clipper that could graze us with a couple of cm had turned into a winter storm. The modeled not only had trended it much further north, but with much more moiture as well.
This looks like a 10-15cm event for most of Southern Ontario with some regions getting 20cm.
So why do I can this Clipper a winter storm? There a few reasons behind it. The QPF of the system may not be as much as I would like, but the upper air temp as well as the surface temp is well below freezing, the snow ratio should be somewhere between 1:15 to 1:20. All the models came up with the same solution and the first few flakes of the system is set to arrive withing 12-18 hours. This give me a great confidence in my forecast.
I will issue an update for the warnings and forecast for selected cities tommorow late morning regarding this system.
looking further out. cold air should still be the main player at least until the end of this month
Another winterstorm could be around the doorsteps between 23-25th. Too early to talk about the track and amount, but I think a storm of some sort should get here around this time frame. I'll watch this as things progresses.
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